GARRETT’S BLOG: Expected Rainfall Totals, Latest on Flooding
Running our Microcast Rainfall Accumulation model this afternoon. The rainfall values are extreme. It’s important to note this is not an exact depiction of exact totals. We use this for reference to see where the heaviest bands of rain could set up. It also shows us the maximum amount of rain possible for a given location, not necessarily how much will actually fall.
In my opinion, these numbers are about 2-3″ too high and actual totals could be closer to around a widespread 10″ of rain. Either way, 10″ of rain in less than 48 hours will cause extensive and life-threatening flash flooding. In addition to the flooding, severe storms with a large hail and tornado threat will also be possible Monday evening into Tuesday.
I’m expecting the White River, Lee Creek, Illinois River, Kings River, Fourche Lafave River, Mulberry River, Poteau River, & Arkansas River to all reach flood stage. Some of these rivers could reach major or record flood stage by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. It will be easier to gauge the trouble spots once the event is underway.
All areas that are prone to flooding: will flood. Many rural roads will become impassable with flood waters. City drainage systems could be overwhelmed by the volume of water and city streets could become blocked and impassable. Because this will be a true “flash flood” event, the high water levels are expected to fall by Wednesday evening into Thursday. Flooding could remain on the larger rivers that take a few days to crest like the Arkansas River.
Small creeks and drainage ditches that typically do not flood will flood in this amount of Rainfall.
We’re starting an iPix Photo Gallery of rain gauges. Submit any pictures to firstname.lastname@example.org and we’ll be constantly checking them for the next few days. You can find me on Facebook and I’ll be interacting and trying to answer as many questions as possible.
Stay safe, and don’t drive into any areas that are flooded. Flash Flooding is the #1 killer, causing more deaths that tornadoes and hurricanes on an annual basis.