For the first time this spring we are tracking a potent upper level system with a lot of energy that is currently spinning off the west coast. This system will bring a chance of severe weather late in the week, starting Thursday and will continue till late in the weekend or possibly early the following week.
First things first though, let’s talk about the chance of storms in the short-term. A front will be moving in on Monday and will spark a complex of storms in northwest Oklahoma late in the evening. This complex will move southeast, but will largely miss the area.
Monday Evening Storm Threat
The image above is a high-resolution model that shows the complex of storms late Monday night. This complex will miss most of our area. The area highlighted in the red box has the highest threat to see severe weather. Outside of this complex a few thunderstorms could develop in our area late Monday night into Tuesday morning but the overall severe risk is very low in our area.
Tuesday Evening Storm Chances
We will have to keep an eye on Tuesday as well for the possibility of another complex of storms developing late Tuesday night and moving into our area. The reason we will see these complexes is because of the jet stream. This is what we refer to as “northwest flow”.
We typically see this in June when complexes of storms form to our northwest and ride that jet stream flow to the southeast.
Late Week Severe Possibilities
By Thursday morning we will see the lead energy from this system start to spread into the plains while the main piece of energy still holding back to the west. Severe weather will be possible from Thursday all the way through the weekend and maybe even into the first part of the next week depending on how fast this system travels. Instability and wind shear will ideal for severe weather. Models don’t yet have a good handle on the track of the smaller pieces of energy or the main system itself just yet. That makes nailing down the details of where the most at risk area for severe will be almost impossible at this point. Those details will become clearer over the next couple of days.
With that said, the overall set-up over the southern plains will be ripe to see severe weather later in the week and the best chance of an elevated risk of severe weather in our area might not arrive until the weekend.
We are keeping a close eye on the latest data that comes in and we will post more updates once the details start to emerge.