Joe’s Blog: Heavy Rain And Strong Storms Possible Tuesday Night

jones lightning

Most of the area picked up between 0.25″ to half an inch of rain with storms that rolled through the area early Tuesday morning. We now turn our attention to an active period of weather that will last through Thursday with several complexes of storms possible.

A complex of showers and storms will form to our northwest late Tuesday night and start to ride to jet stream winds down into our area overnight Tuesday in Wednesday morning. This complex of storms will be near Tulsa and parts of northeast Oklahoma after midnight.

Even though we lose daytime heating there will still be enough instability left to support strong thunderstorms overnight. This chart below shows C.A.P.E values, or fuel the storm needs to keep going. The hotter the colors the higher the instability.

The complex of storms will continue to track southeast overnight and push through the area by around 7AM. There is a limited severe weather risk with the storms overnight in the form of small hail and gusty winds. These type of systems rarely carry that high of a tornado threat.

Rainfall guidance from the HPC shows the possibility of 0.25-0.50″ of rain possible with the complex overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. It’s not out of the question for a few spots to be closer to one inch. 

Another complex will take aim at our area late Wednesday night into Thursday and it will bring the best chances of heavy rain (1-2″) and a limited severe weather threat.

-Joe

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