Severe weather season peaks in April for Arkansas. The majority of the rainfall and tornado reports occur during the month of April & May than any other month of the year.
According to the Storm Prediction Center our primary severe weather season is March 5th – June 24th peaking on April 24th. The most likely time to experience severe weather is 7pm. Many of our severe weather reports for tornadoes and large hail occur in May with a noticeable decline in June leading into the summer months as the subtropical high pressure ridge builds in from the southwest.
March was uneventful in Arkansas for severe weather as a large trough of low pressure across the midwest and the northeast continue to push colder than normal temperatures into our region causing snow on Spring break and below normal temperatures for most of the month. Nationally, March recorded the fewest number of tornado reports in the last 60 years with around 12 for the whole country; the average is around 80. March also finished an average of 3-4 degrees colder than normal.
According to the Climate Prediction Center, April, May, & June are forecast to be warmer than normal this year with equal chances for normal rainfall.
Although temperatures will fall for the first week of April to nearly 20 degrees below normal, the long-range forecast indicated a large trough of low pressure ejecting out of the southwest and into the Central Plain next week with widespread severe weather looking more favorable.
In April we typically see about 4″ to 4.50″ of rainfall for the entire month with high climbing from the 70 at the start of the month to around 77 at the end of the month.