Pattern Change: From Cold To Severe Weather

Lightning from storms south of Hartman on 9/7/12.

Winter time cold weather just doesn’t seem to want to leave our area even though the calendar has flipped into April.

A strong cold front will bring one last shot of colder weather for the first week of April. Highs will remain about 20 degrees below average starting Tuesday and lasting through Thursday. euro cold

Along with the cold weather, rain chances will increase for early to mid-week. 1 to 2 inches of rain will be possible Tuesday through Thursday. april 1 qpf

This shot of cold and rainy weather will follow up on what was a colder than average March across most of our area. March saw Fayetteville register the 9th coldest March on record and the 41st coldest March in Fort Smith.

Over the past 14 days temperatures have been colder than average for a large chuck on the United States. temp anomoly

One reason the weather pattern was cold across most of the United States during March was a result of a negative phase of the North American Oscillation (NAO). nao

When the NAO is in the negative phase pushes the jet stream, and cold weather, from the north to the south. The NAO is forecast to eventually turn positive allowing for warmer temps and the return of an active and stormy weather pattern.

We are starting to see signs that the overall pattern will start to change from cold to warm and active. This is the 6 to 10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center showing those above average temperatures.6 to 10 day outlook

The cold snap during the first week of April will soon be followed by a rapid warm-up late in the week into the second half of the week. meto

One thing that has our attention now is a shift in the upper level wind patterns. By the second week in April the wind patterns will favor a much more active, and stormy pattern. pattern change

The severe weather season has been off to a very slow start with only 15 tornadoes reported nationwide in March. The monthly tornado average in March for the United States is 98 tornadoes.

What has been a very quiet early spring will likely turn into an active severe weather season by the second week of April.

 



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