Storms that develop in Oklahoma for the next two nights will track east into Arkansas on Thursday and Friday morning, May 9-10.
Rain chances appear to be highest for the next two days after midnight into the morning hours on both days; although at least some scattered showers are possible in the afternoon.
Rainfall totals appear to be in the 1-2” range. Futurecast is estimating around .70” of an inch in NWA and around .75” in the RV over the course of 3 days. Forecast totals in Tulsa and Little Rock are closer to 1.75” and 1.30” respectfully. Locally heavy totals around 1-2” will remain possible but around .50-.75” on average.
Severe weather risk will be present, but minimal. The upper level winds are unusually weak for May and the lower shear will lead to a decrease in the severe risk. There is, however, plenty of instability due to the warm air and moisture so it stands to reason a handful of storms could potentially become severe. The higher instability is located in southern Oklahoma.
Another front will sweep the moisture east on Saturday, May 11, with lower rain chances. Should see clearing skies on Saturday afternoon and evening with sunny skies for Sunday and highs in the 60s and 70s; a little cool for this time of year.
Warm weather with highs back to near 80 will take us into the middle of next week with another potential storm system, possibly a stronger one, arriving around next Friday, May 17, but it’s too far away to know anything for certain.