This blog will provide updates from the 5NEWS Weather Team regarding the potential for severe weather Thursday afternoon and into the overnight.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for Sebastian county til 12:30AM. Storm capable of producing 1″ hail and 60mph winds #5wx
Worst of this storm will pass south of Fort Smith. Heads up in Pocola, Barling, Greenwood, Rock Island. #5wx
Storm timing of strongest line segment. #5wx
No significant rotation being detected with the line of storms moving through.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for Sequoyah until 10:45. Storm capable of producing 1″ hail and wind gusts to 60mph. #5wx
Stacy Ryburn – Fort Smith 9:54PM
Line is moving east at roughly 35mph. This places the storms in Fort Smith in about 1 hour. #5wx
Storms in NWA are capable of producing nickle sized hail and wind gusts to 50mph. Hail being reported in Springdale at 9:30PM.
12:30 update. Clouds this morning and early this afternoon have kept most temperatures in the 50s and a few lower 60s. Skies are clearing to our west and as a result the instability is higher. We do expect some clearing this afternoon and that will help increase instability in our area (fuel for the storms.)
Tornado watch likely to soon be issued for east Kansas, west Missouri, northeast Oklahoma.
8am UPDATE- A slight risk of severe weather continues for most of the area. All areas highlighted in the yellow shading will be under the risk of severe thunderstorms this evening.
The main threat with the storms this evening will be gusty winds and hail; however, there will be the threat of isolated tornadoes in the the area shaded in yellow.
High-resolution weather models have flipped back and forth on the placement of thunderstorm development in our area this evening. the main forcing for thunderstorms will be to the north of our area, but the increasing moisture and instability in our area could overcome that fact. The latest run of the HRRR shows two areas of thunderstorms…a broken line of storms in Missouri and more isolated storms in Northwest Arkansas. This would be in the 7 to 8pm time frame.
Estimated max wind gusts for Thursday storms from the National Weather Service in Tulsa.
Estimated max hail size for Thursday storms from the National Weather Service in Tulsa.
Below is a model estimate of the timing of Thursday’s line of storms.