This blog will provide updates from the 5NEWS Weather Team regarding the potential for severe weather Thursday afternoon and into the overnight.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for Sebastian county til 12:30AM. Storm capable of producing 1″ hail and 60mph winds #5wx
Worst of this storm will pass south of Fort Smith. Heads up in Pocola, Barling, Greenwood, Rock Island. #5wx
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for Crawford, Sebastian, Le Flore, Sequoyah counties until 11:45PM. Storm capable of producing 1.25″ hail, 60mph winds. Moving east at 45mph.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for Crawford & Sebastian counties in Arkansas and Le Flore & Sequoyah in Oklahoma until 11:45 PM.
Storm timing of strongest line segment. #5wx
No significant rotation being detected with the line of storms moving through.
Storms moving east at about 30mph places the line into Fort Smith around 11:10PM.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for Sequoyah, Haskell, and Le Flore counties until 11:00PM. Storms capable of producing 1″ hail and wind gusts to 60mph. Moving east around 30mph. #5wx
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for Sequoyah until 10:45. Storm capable of producing 1″ hail and wind gusts to 60mph. #5wx
Rich Hightower – Fayetteville before the storm hit
Rick Carney – Johnson 10PM
Brandon Johnson – Pea Ridge 9:57PM
Stacy Ryburn – Fort Smith 9:54PM
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been posted for most of our area until 5am.
Line is moving east at roughly 35mph. This places the storms in Fort Smith in about 1 hour. #5wx
Storms in NWA are capable of producing nickle sized hail and wind gusts to 50mph. Hail being reported in Springdale at 9:30PM.
Storms gaining strength across Northwest Arkansas. Nothing severe yet. This line is moving to the southeast.
Front is starting to move in. Showers and storms trying to fire up in NWA and NE Oklahoma.
From the National Weather Service in Tulsa.
Storms are struggling to form along the dryline across NE Oklahoma so far this afternoon. The bulk of the storms have formed further north in a area of better synoptic forcing. Storm chances remain low at this time until a cold front further west catches up to the dryline and advances east tonight.
Here’s the approximate timing of showers and storms as the cold front moves through tonight.
Storms beginning to form in NE Oklahoma during the 3 o’clock hour.
Winds are really howling out of the south. Gusts up around 40mph at 3pm.
As of 1pm, the highest instability remains to our west where they have seen more sunshine.
By 7PM, the RAP model indicates an increase in instability in our area.
A Tornado Watch has been issued for parts of far Northeast Oklahoma, Southeast Kansas and Southwest Missouri. This includes McDonald County in Southwest Missouri until 8PM.
12:30 update. Clouds this morning and early this afternoon have kept most temperatures in the 50s and a few lower 60s. Skies are clearing to our west and as a result the instability is higher. We do expect some clearing this afternoon and that will help increase instability in our area (fuel for the storms.)
Tornado watch likely to soon be issued for east Kansas, west Missouri, northeast Oklahoma.
8am UPDATE- A slight risk of severe weather continues for most of the area. All areas highlighted in the yellow shading will be under the risk of severe thunderstorms this evening.
The main threat with the storms this evening will be gusty winds and hail; however, there will be the threat of isolated tornadoes in the the area shaded in yellow.
High-resolution weather models have flipped back and forth on the placement of thunderstorm development in our area this evening. the main forcing for thunderstorms will be to the north of our area, but the increasing moisture and instability in our area could overcome that fact. The latest run of the HRRR shows two areas of thunderstorms…a broken line of storms in Missouri and more isolated storms in Northwest Arkansas. This would be in the 7 to 8pm time frame.
One thing we will be keeping an eye on today will be the return of moisture ahead of the cold front tonight. So far, the richest moisture remains in Texas.
Over the past 3 hours, the dew points have been increase across the area. We expect dew points to climb into the 50s by the afternoon.
High-resolution, rapid update models are often useful in helping identify storm development. This is the HRRR model and it is showing storm development around 5pm in SW Missouri. We expect storms to develop farther southwest throughout the evening.
Not much of a change in the severe weather risk area for later today. We expect storms to develop in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible in the risk area highlighted in yellow.
Estimated max wind gusts for Thursday storms from the National Weather Service in Tulsa.
Estimated max hail size for Thursday storms from the National Weather Service in Tulsa.
Below is a model estimate of the timing of Thursday’s line of storms.
Storms will develop along a dry line during the early afternoon across eastern Oklahoma and push east during the evening and overnight.
The main threats from Thursday storms will be large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Flood threat is low.
Locations shaded in yellow have been placed in a ‘slight risk’ for severe weather by the Storm Prediction Center for Thursday. The window of time for severe weather will mainly be between 4 to 10 PM.