Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in Oklahoma and move into Arkansas late afternoon and evening. The storms are expected to be severe with damaging winds and large hail the primary threat. The image above shows a Hi-Res computer model’s depiction of thunderstorms around 6pm.
The storms are developing along a cold front which should clear the area by midnight. Unusually cold temperatures will follow with highs only in the 40s on Monday and a Freeze Warning in effect for Northwest Arkansas for Monday night into Tuesday.
There is a minimal risk of tornado Sunday evening but shear profile and cold air aloft strongly favor large hail initially followed by an increasing wind damage threat.
Heavy rain will also be possible with most locations receiving around 1.25″ of rain on average.
The next chance for severe thunderstorms will arrive on Thursday of the upcoming work week.