x
Breaking News
More () »

Garrett’s Blog: Tropical System Odile Remnants To Move Into Arkansas

The last Category 3 storm to hit the Baja of California was 1989’s Hurricane Kiko with winds of 120mph. It was one of the strongest storms since record ke...
Odile_Sept_14_2014_1755Z

The last Category 3 storm to hit the Baja of California was 1989’s Hurricane Kiko with winds of 120mph. It was one of the strongest storms since record keeping began in the area around the 1950s.

Hurricane Odile made landfall with winds of 125mph also making it a Category 3 according to the National Hurricane Center.

Garrett’s Blog: Tropical System Odile Remnants To Move Into Arkansas

Image shows Hurricane Kiki’s 1989 track.

Garrett’s Blog: Tropical System Odile Remnants To Move Into Arkansas

Image show Hurricane Odile from NASA/Terra MODIS Satellite near landfall.

So what effect will this have on weather in Arkansas? The southwestern United States is generally removed from the upper level wind flow this time of year. Seasonal winds often reverse causing widespread rains (often referred to as the “monsoon season” for places like Arizona or New Mexico.

The leftovers from Hurricane Odile will drift northeast until they encounter the next upper wave in the atmosphere which appears to me moving into that region around Thursday or Friday.

Garrett’s Blog: Tropical System Odile Remnants To Move Into Arkansas

This image shows the forecast weather pattern on Thursday Night. The tropical remains with weak circulation and high water content will continue to swirl over northern Mexico. A long-wave trough is forecast to be advancing into the SW United States which will eventually force the moisture laden air east.

Garrett’s Blog: Tropical System Odile Remnants To Move Into Arkansas

By Friday evening, very high relative humidity in the middle of the atmosphere will be forced east into the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.

Garrett’s Blog: Tropical System Odile Remnants To Move Into Arkansas

By late Saturday night and Sunday morning, heavy rain will develop in response to the nearing trough. Currently, it looks like most of the rain will occur after dark on Saturday and move into the area Sunday morning. Timing could be off since it’s still 5-6 days out but this is the current forecast. This image shows Sunday around 1pm.

Garrett’s Blog: Tropical System Odile Remnants To Move Into Arkansas

The image above will likely change as the forecast gets refined but our region of Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, & Kansas appears to be most favored for the heaviest of the rain with 1-3″+ possible.

(Note: Model images above from ECMWF 12z 9-15-14, GFS shows similar positioning with respect to the trough movement and precipitable water flux; however, timing will need to be refined as forecast become clearer.)

-Garrett

 

 

Before You Leave, Check This Out