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Garrett’s Blog: Frigid Wind Chills, More Snow Chances

A very messy pattern continues to unfold for Thursday and Friday with an even messier forecast for the weekend. The big story in the short-term will be the powe...
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A very messy pattern continues to unfold for Thursday and Friday with an even messier forecast for the weekend.

The big story in the short-term will be the powerful arctic cold front sweeping across the area.

Garrett’s Blog: Frigid Wind Chills, More Snow Chances

This map shows the forecast wind chill for 6am Thursday. Although air temperatures will be in the 20s, a blustery north wind with gusts to nearly 30mph will drive the wind chill down all day.

In addition, there’s a little bit of humidity for light snow flurries. As of now, it does not appear to be a factor for travel or school cancellations.

Garrett’s Blog: Frigid Wind Chills, More Snow Chances

This image shows very little moisture in the atmosphere on Thursday but the gray color indications the potential for some very light flurries. This is Thursday morning at 6am but a few flurries may be possible underneath the low clouds until early afternoon.

Attention then shifts to a weak disturbance in the mid-levels that appears to be weakening as it arrives in Arkansas. The best chances for accumulating snow will be in Oklahoma City, but much of the latest data still suggests some snow may survive a little farther east. The very dry air is the main limiting factor for snow. A lot of it might either evaporate before it gets here or evaporate as it falls.

Garrett’s Blog: Frigid Wind Chills, More Snow Chances

Futurecast is rolling some light snow into Arkansas around 3pm on Friday.

Garrett’s Blog: Frigid Wind Chills, More Snow Chances

The evening run of the NAM 4k is slightly more aggressive with the snow and may be overestimating the amount of moisture available. This model handled the last system poorly so there is considerable uncertainty as to whether or not it makes it this far east. If it does make it here… it would be in the afternoon on Friday and could lead to travel problems.

There is also another system expected to arrive late in the day on Saturday into Sunday.

Right now, it appears there could be minor accumulations of sleet, snow, or freezing rain until a transition to a cold rain occurs on Sunday. There is also considerable uncertainty regarding type and timing. Once the depth/strength of the shallow arctic air can be assessed better in the next 24 hours it should be more clearly defined.

Something else to consider, this weekend is the beginning of March, the sun angle is much higher now and the very shallow edge of the arctic dome might be able to mix out (or warm) easier. Climatology is also starting to favor more of a rain than wintry weather so there’s likely going to be more rain than anything else with this system and the travel implications are expected to be short lived.

To recap:

– Thursday: Awful wind chill, few flurries, travel not affected

– Friday: Very cold, system moving in from Oklahoma, favors River Valley, minor afternoon snow possible if it arrives, travel possibly affected.

– Saturday: Wintry mix late evening

– Sunday: Wintry mix early, travel possibly affected in the morning before a transition to all rain.

In a word: Messy.

-Garrett

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