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Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for most of the area with Winter Weather Advisories also in effect. The difference between a “warning” and &...
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A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for most of the area with Winter Weather Advisories also in effect.

The difference between a “warning” and “advisory” deals snow accumulation. In the areas where 4″+ of snow or .25″ of ice are possible (it doesn’t mean it will happen, but it means it’s a possibility) the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning. In areas where less than 4″ of snow appear likely an “advisory” has been issued.

The biggest change to the forecast has been that the system is moving slower than this time yesterday.

Highest impacts will be Wednesday afternoon and evening. Travel will continue to be poor into Thursday morning with road conditions improving by early afternoon on Thursday.

**The timing, type, & amounts may still change based on how the system evolves; check back for updates.**

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

This is the current advisory/warning configuration. Within the warning area, anywhere from 2-4″ of snow is possible with locally higher amounts.

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

Probabilities for at least 1″ of snow are very high for our area. Given the current temperature of the ground, 1″ may be all that is necessary for travel problems and cancellations.

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

Although the chance is lower, there is still a possibility for some locations to pick up over 4″ of snow with individual bands. The favored area is North Central Arkansas. Over 4″ may fall in this area, including some places with over 1/2 foot of snow.

Here is the current timeline:

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

6am: Some freezing rain and sleet with already be underway in Northwest Arkansas. There will likely be a few slick spots in Benton County but the rest of the area may see only rain.

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

8am: The freezing line will continue to advance south with freezing rain and sleet spreading into Fayetteville and the Boston Mountains.

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

10am: As is always the case, the shallow and low cold air has a difficult time crossing over the Ozarks. As a result the cold airmass will stall somewhere around the tunnel (which is near 2,600ft) around lunchtime. Sleet and freezing rain will be occurring in Northwest Arkansas. It is possible that schools may choose early dismissal at this time as road conditions will continue to deteriorate.

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

Noon: The majority of the precipitation will be rain in the River Valley but the cold air will begin spilling south. It would not be surprising to see some sleet or freezing rain in the Fort Smith area at this time, but it’s likely the majority will be rain.

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

2pm: The cold air will be deep enough for snow in Bentonville & Rogers with sleet and snow in Fayetteville. Sleet and freezing rain will be possible in Fort Smith with the majority still rain.

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

4pm: Another disturbance in central Oklahoma will advance east into Arkansas at this time. Fort Smith will be experiencing rain with some freezing rain and sleet. Northwest Arkansas will begin a complete transition to all snow.

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

6pm: Snow will be falling across much of Northwest Arkansas with sleet and snow in the Fort Smith area. As the sun sets the roads will quickly become slick.

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

8pm: Snow will be likely across much of the area at this time with sleet and freezing rain in Booneville & Waldron.

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

10pm: Snow will continue to fall across the entire area, tapering off sometime around 11pm or midnight. Road conditions are not expected to improve overnight as temperatures fall into the teens area-wide.

Garrett’s Blog: NWS Upgrades To Winter Storm Warning

This image is new from the National Weather Service in Tulsa and shows some of the anticipated amounts of accumulations. (Logan, Scott, & Johnson Co are assigned to NWS Little Rock but the neighboring counties will provide a good estimation of where some of the higher totals could possibly occur.

Check back for updates….

-Garrett

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