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Garrett’s Blog: Summer Trend; Weak Rain Chances

The weather this week will feel like summer with some of the warmest temperatures we’ve seen this year and only minimal rain chances. Two high pressure sy...
Image 159

The weather this week will feel like summer with some of the warmest temperatures we’ve seen this year and only minimal rain chances.

Two high pressure systems will cause any approaching cold front to fizzle and fade with only minimal rain chances.

By the weekend, a bigger trough of low pressure from out west will give us a slightly higher chance for showers and thunderstorms but as it presses against the western high pressure ridge it may also weaken.

The best timing for storms will be in the late afternoon and evening when daytime heating is maximized for the next 7-days.

Here’s a look:

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Monday Afternoon: A weak front is washing out with an increase in clouds and a small chance for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening along the weakening boundary. This boundary will be roaming the area on Tuesday as well but will be even more diffuse so overall rain chances look minimal.

Image 159

This image shows Monday night (June 8th). The stronger upper level winds are up in the Great Lakes area and that’s where the best chance for showers and thunderstorms (and severe weather) will be located.

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Tuesday/Wednesday: Use can see a weak trough across Arkansas along with some stronger upper level winds rotating around the east side of the high pressure which is centered off the west coast of Mexico. Small rain chances will be in the forecast late afternoon and evening but overall the risk of rain appears small. This is a change from the forecast last week in which the high looked weaker; with the high being stronger you can expect to see fewer showers.

Image 161

Upcoming Weekend: A similar scenario unfolds for the upcoming weekend with a large high pressure system moving west along the SE of the United States. with a trough approaching from the west. The flow around the high pressure should force very humid air into Arkansas. This, combined with the trough from out west, will cause scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Due to the tropical nature of the air-mass there could be locally heavy rain.

The severe risk will be limited because we won’y have any upper level wind shear or surface boundaries to work with. Instability will be maximized with daytime heating so the best chance for rain and even a low-end severe risk of damaging winds would be in the late afternoon and early evening.

Overall, looks like a very typical summer pattern for the foreseeable future.

-Garrett

 

 

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