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Garrett’s Blog: Storms From 12am to 6am Tuesday

The chance for severe thunderstorms returns late Monday night and into early Tuesday. The main threat from the severe storms will be hail which could be as larg...
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The chance for severe thunderstorms returns late Monday night and into early Tuesday. The main threat from the severe storms will be hail which could be as large as quarter or golfball size. The risk of tornadoes and wind damage is low.

We’ll see two rounds of thunderstorms:

  • The first round will be along the warm front starting in NE Oklahoma around 10 or 11pm and spreading into NW Arkansas around midnight. Hail is the primary risk. The storms will be elevated and higher based storms tend to result in lower risks of wind damage and tornadoes and a higher risk of hail.
  • The second round will occur as the cold front overtake the warm front and sweeps across the area into sunrise. Instability is low due to the morning timing but the drive to work could be messy; especially for Fort Smith and south. Storms will likely continue past 6am but the overall trend will be diminishing as the front works east.

Looking ahead, skies clear out with drier air and cooler temperatures for the next few days with another chance for thunderstorms late Wednesday night and still another chance on Sunday.

Here’s are the specifics on timing and intensity…

Garrett’s Blog: Storms From 12am to 6am Tuesday

1am Tuesday: The hi-res models show the showers and thunderstorms in the area overnight. The best chance for severe weather will be around midnight.

Garrett’s Blog: Storms From 12am to 6am Tuesday

The Storm Prediction Center Outlook shows the higher chances for severe weather tonight in Oklahoma closer to Tulsa and Oklahoma City.

Garrett’s Blog: Storms From 12am to 6am Tuesday

6am Tuesday: The cold front will be sweeping across the area. Expect clearing skies and breezy weather for the afternoon with winds gusting over 35mph.

Garrett’s Blog: Storms From 12am to 6am Tuesday

Futurecast at 1am Tuesday shows the thunderstorms in NW Arkansas with fairly warm temperatures from the south winds continuing.

Garrett’s Blog: Storms From 12am to 6am Tuesday

By 6am Tuesday, showers are exiting in NW Arkansas but still continuing in the Greater Fort Smith area.

Garrett’s Blog: Storms From 12am to 6am Tuesday

By Noon Tuesday, the rain exits to the east with clearing skies and blustery winds.

 

Garrett’s Blog: Storms From 12am to 6am Tuesday

Rain totals are in the 1-1.25″ range with locally heavier amounts.

-Garrett

 

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