Garrett’s Blog: Timing. A Few Severe Storms This Evening
The end to the unseasonable warmth arrives this evening with a strong cold front pushing into the area from the northwest.
There will be a narrow time-frame for severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. The cold front will eventually undercut the updrafts for the storms ending the severe weather risk this evening.
The timing for severe storms appears to be from 5pm-11pm; the storms from 7pm-9pm might be the strongest before weakening.
The risk area includes NW Arkansas and into SW Missouri. Storms are expected to weaken and not maintain severe intensity as they advance east into central Arkansas.
The most likely severe risk is hail; up to quarter size. There’s also a potential for a few severe wind gusts up to 60mph with the stronger storms. The tornado risk does not look particularly high due to cold air undercutting the storms.
7PM Wednesday: Data shows thunderstorms bubbling up along the front.
By 9PM Wednesday: Thunderstorms will be along the front and some could be severe. They should weaken relatively quickly as the front moves in to undercut the storms.
Extended severe weather is not likely overnight.
Colder weather will move into the region for the remainder of the week with plenty of sunshine for the weekend.