The Results Are In: Was The Groundhog Accurate For 2018?

On February 2, 2018, Punxsutawney Phil predicted six more weeks of winter. How accurate was he for Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley?  We analyzed the data and here are the results:

We looked at both high temperatures and the amount of snowfall in our region. Every day for the past six weeks, we compared the high temperature with the average temperature. The sum of the anomalies gave us the answer:

Phil was wrong.

His Prediction:  Six More Weeks Of Winter

Reality:  It was warmer than normal. After summing the departure from normal every day the past 6 weeks, we came out 140.8 degrees warmer than normal.

It was a chilly February at times, but with a mild March, colder temperatures were wiped up and spring seemed to come early. Even according to the USA National Phenology Network, spring came early this year by 5-10 days in terms of trees budding and flowers blooming.

Overall it was 140.8 degrees warming than normal the past month and a half.  That drops his accuracy rate from 36% to 35%.

Poor Mr. Groundhog.

-Matt