While the exact detail on timing and overall intensity are still somewhat in question, it appears severe thunderstorms will be likely on Wednesday night and Thursday.
There’s quite a bit of uncertainty in this forecast and I hesitated to write this post due to so many unknowns. Check back later this week as the forecast gets revised on Tuesday and especially Wednesday evening as the first system evolves and moves into our region.
Two (maybe 3) chance for severe storms…
- Wednesday Night: Storms in Oklahoma and Kansas will evolve into a complex during the overnight hours. The main risk would be damaging wind and perhaps a few spin-up tornadoes on the leading edge of the line. *(High confidence forecast; we feel pretty good about it raining Wednesday night and storms being severe)
- Thursday Day: Dryline storms develop in East Oklahoma and move into our area. These storms would be supercells with a much higher risk of damaging winds and tornadoes… along with very large hail, too. *(Poor confidence forecast; the development of these storms will depend on how the atmosphere recovers from the morning event. We don’t know yet how that will play out)
- Thursday evening/night: Cold front. Another round of storms forms along the front. A few severe cells are possible along the front with damaging wind being the main risk. * (Low confidence on severity, high confidence the front brings rain; we know the front will arrive and move across the area with rain and thunderstorms but the intensity of the storms is unknown at this point. If the cold front merges with the dryline on Wednesday there will only be two rounds and we’ll have missed out on the higher tornado risk.)
So that’s the set-up. Clear as mud eh?
The bottom line is this.. pay attention to the weather Wednesday evening and all day on Thursday.
By the time Friday arrives it’ll be smooth sailing into the weekend.
-Garrett
