Garrett’s Blog: Timing Wednesday’s Storms
Wednesday is shaping up to be an active weather day across the southcentral Plains with a chance for rain early in the day as storms in Kansas fade and then another chance for storms in the afternoon and evening on Wednesday.
Here are a few of the highlights.
- Morning rain Wednesday possible in Northwest Arkansas
- Widespread severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon and evening Southcentral Kansas & Northeast Oklahoma.
- Storms slowly weak as they move east due to a capping inversion which will work against storm development.
- Northwest Arkansas has highest chance of severe storms Wednesday if storms are able to make it into the area.
Recent model runs this evening show the storms moving into NE Oklahoma round 1 or 2am.
At 3am Wednesday morning Futurecast shows storms continuing southeast before they finally fade.
This is the HiRes model at 9am Wednesday and it jet *barely* keeps the storms north of us, it will be close and should not be a surprise a few sneak into the area.
The surface chart at 1pm on Wednesday shows a warm front across Kansas and Missouri with an area of low pressure in the panhandles. The dryline in west Oklahoma is expected to move east by late afternoon causing strong to severe storms to develop. They will likely be supercells with a tornado risk.
The highest risk for tornadoes on Wednesday is NE Oklahoma and into SE Kansas & Missouri. If a storms is able to continue it’s strength into Arkansas there will be a risk here, too. The risk is somewhat lower due to the stronger capping inversion which should work against the storms.
This is around 3-4pm Wednesday. The latest data does show thunderstorms in NE Oklahoma attempting to make a run at Northwest Arkansas. Should storms arrive in the area it would be in the 4-9pm timeframe and probably closer to the late evening hours as opposed to late afternoon.
Another round of storms is expected on Thursday.
Strong forcing along the line will cause storms to merge into a severe squall like with a high wind damage risk and slightly lower tornado risk. Shear in the atmosphere remains high and a few rotating storms are still possible. The timing on Thursday’s storms looks to be 2pm-10pm.