Garrett’s Blog: Expect Storms Tonight

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Storms that have developed in Western Texas and Western Oklahoma will organize into a line this evening and move into our area this evening.

The time for storms will be from 8pm to 1am with the most likely timeframe around 10pm.   The storms will lose their intensity as the move into our area. Most of them are expected to be just below severe limits but given the timing of year, it's possible we could see a handful of stronger storms.

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The Severe Risk area from the Storm Prediction Center highlights most areas west of us.

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The tornado risk for today will remain to our south and west.

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8pm Thursday: Futurecast shows the storms in Central Oklahoma moving east.

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Midnight: Futurecast is indicating the storms moving across the area.

I actually think Futurecast is too slow with this line and the time it arrives across the Arkansas/Oklahoma state line will be slower to 10pm.

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The Hi-Res Data is also indicating that it'll arrive earlier closer to 10pm and that seems about right.

To recap:

  • Storms tonight after 8pm
  • Majority not severe
  • Storms ending by 2am

More storms are in the forecast for tomorrow and the calm weather likely won't return until around Monday of next week.

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Also, estimated rainfall totals are expected to be in the 2-3" range and this could cause flash flooding.

 

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The National Weather Service has placed much of our area under a Flash Flood Watch until Monday morning.

-Garrett