Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will move across the area Wednesday night into the first half of the day on Thursday. The heaviest rainfall totals will be just to the SW of our area in Oklahoma with our rainfall totals in the .50"-1" range. Limited instability and shear will prevent widespread severe weather with this round of rain. The rainfall is not expected to be excessive so widespread flash flooding does not appear likely; however the grounds remain saturated from the weekend rainfall and flash flooding will be likely later this weekend.
Here's a look at what we're watching...
The severe weather risk will be highest to our southwest in south Texas on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Rainfall totals will range from .50"-1" with some of the higher totals just to our west.
You can see the weak ripple in the atmosphere that's going to cause the rain Wednesday night. Compare that to the much larger system on the west coast. That storm system will arrive over the weekend and will bring both the chance of severe weather as well as flash flooding.
8PM Wednesday: Rain moving north from Texas and Louisiana
Midnight: Rain across Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley
3am Thursday: Scattered rain continues
6am Thursday: Areas of rain will continue into the morning hours for the drive to work. It does appear it will be intermittent and not nonstop.
Noon Thursday: Expect diminishing showers as the upper wave exits to the northeast. The 2nd half of Thursday does appear to be drier.