There are two systems on the horizon, one that arrives on Thursday and another that gets here over the weekend.
The Thursday system continues to trend weak with mostly some rain or perhaps a few flurries as the system departs. It appears most of the good moisture/humidity will be gone by the time the true cold air arrives so the prospect of snow on Thursday looks bleak.
Thursday’s systems continues to trend drier locally with most of the quality moisture gone by the time the cold air gets here.
There is much greater variance with the second system arriving over the weekend.
One model solution goes BIG on winter weather with widespread snow. This is the Global Forecast Solution or the GFS.
The second solutions is mostly dry with a little big of rain, perhaps a flurries as it exits. This is the ECMWF or better known as the “Euro”.
The trend this winter seems to be for the GFS to fall in line with the Euro as the date nears, so at this point I would discount the GFS snowstorm and wait for the data to become more consistent. If you have plans this weekend, continue to follow the forecast as it evolves. We’re still very much in the winter season and few degrees of change either way could mean the difference between a cold rain or a wet snow.
Our forecast (this this point in time on Monday) will blend the data with a chance for rain/snow on Saturday night into Sunday until a consensus becomes clearer. Shallow, cold air is difficult for the model data to handle but should have better grid resolution as the date approaches.
-Garrett
