First Frost In Arkansas For Some Next Week?

The remainder of October is trending colder.   Even colder air could come in as early as next weekend.  There is a slight threat for patchy frost in Northwest Arkansas Monday morning, October 15th.  (Possible Tuesday morning, October 16th too)

Average First Frost – Fayetteville:  October 19th
Average First Frost – Fort Smith:  November 5th

Patchy Frost:  38-42°F

Frost:  33-37°F

Widespread Hard Frost/Freeze:  32°F or below

(The reason why?  These air temperatures are estimated 2 meters above the ground. It can actually be a handful of degrees colder at the grass and plant level.)


  1. Cool Temperatures:  The air around plants needs to be around the freezing mark, as well as the dew point.
  2. Clear Skies:  Clouds act like a blanket at night. Clear skies will allow temperatures to drop more quickly.
  3. Little-To-No-Wind:  Winds mix the air too much to produce frost. Even with north winds, turbulent eddies near the ground will prevent a delicate frost from forming.
  4. Valleys:  Valleys can get colder than the tops of hills thanks to negative buoyancy. Cold air from the tops of terrain sink into valleys at night. The best chance to see a frost when the forecast is borderline is in low-lying areas.

As of right now, it will not be cold enough in the River Valley to produce frost next week.