HS Football Playoff Scenarios: Week Nine
There is a lot that can happen over the next two weeks but the playoff picture is starting to take shape.
@5NEWSBobby breaks down the conferences in the Football Friday Night viewing area and takes a look at how the playoff bracket might look in two weeks. He did not put tie breaker points into the equation for week nine. We’ll save that for week 10.
No. 1 Seed: Bentonville, Bentonville West
For the Second straight season, the top spot in the conference will come down to a week 10 showdown between the Wolverines and Tigers. Bentonville has a much tougher road to week 10 (vs Springdale) than West does (vs Van Buren).
No. 2 Seed: Bentonville, Bentonville West, Fayetteville, Springdale
Mathematically both Bulldogs can still get the No. 2 seed and a first round bye but would need either West or Bentonville to lose out plus both need to win out to force a three-team tie. Both Fayetteville and Springdale would lose head to head tie breakers with the Bentonville schools.
No. 3/4 Seed: Fayetteville, Springdale, Har-Ber, Van Buren
Fayetteville has the inside track on the No. 3 seed as they defeated Springdale last week. The Purple Dogs face Har-Ber in the regular season finale. Springdale has a tough test vs Bentonville this week and then closes the regular season with Van Buren. Har-Ber faces Rogers in week 9.
No. 5/6 Seed: Springdale, Har-Ber, Van Buren
Har-Ber’s rout of Van Buren gave them the upper hand when it comes to the No. 5 seed. The Wildcats and Red Dogs could very well end in a tie as far as the conference record and would come down to the head to head for the No. 4 and 5 seed. The Red Dogs decision to go for two and the win could benefit Springdale in this scenario (much like it did in week seven).
Out of the mix: Rogers, Heritage
No. 1/2/3 Seed: Bryant, North Little Rock, Conway
Bryant travels to North Little Rock on Friday and the winner likely wins the conference title. NLR already owns a 21-point win over Conway, the Wampus Cats’ only loss. Bryant hosts Conway in week 10. There is no scenario in which any of these three fall below the No. 3 seed as Conway has wins over Northside and Southside.
No. 4/5 Seed: Northside, Southside
Assuming both the Mavericks and Grizzlies take care of business against the bottom two teams in the conference this week, their week 10 meeting will be for a first round home playoff game. Southside hosts 1-6 Little Rock Central while Northside travels to Cabot for what is likely Mike Malham’s final home game as coach.
No. 6 Seed: Little Rock Catholic, Cabot
The Rockets beat Cabot in the conference opener and closes the regular season with Central. Cabot could get back into the mix with an upset of Northside and it LR Central knocks off the Rockets in the regular season finale.
Out of the mix: Little Rock Central
No. 1 Seed: Greenwood
Benton can technically still win the conference if Greenwood loses out but the chances of that are practically zero. The Bulldogs’ 29-point win ensured a 6A title game appearance still runs through Smith-Robinson Stadium.
No. 2 Seed: Benton
Though Russellville and El Dorado are just a game back with two games remaining, Benton owns the tie breaker over each. Panthers likely get other first round bye.
No. 3/4 Seed: Russellville, El Dorado, Siloam Springs, Lake Hamilton
The Cyclones and Wildcats face one another in week nine but Russellville has a tougher end to the season. El Dorado gets 1-7 LR Hall in week 10 while Russellville travels to Siloam Springs. Siloam could move into this mix with two wins to close out the season.
No. 5/6 Seed: Siloam Springs, Lake Hamilton
Panthers have the upper hand as they beat Lake Hamilton in week seven.
Out of the mix: Sheridan, Little Rock Hall
No. 1 Seed: Harrison
Goblins took control of the league with a 31-0 win over Alma in week eight. Airedales could get back into the mix for the top spot if Harrison loses out but they face 0-5 Huntsville this week.
No. 2/3 Seed: Alma, Greenbrier, Morrilton
If Alma wins out, they get the home game and the No. 2 seed. The Airedales travel to Greenbrier in week nine in a pivotal game for the league standings.
No. 4 seed: Alma, Greenbrier, Morrilton, Vilonia, Farmington
There are a lot of scenarios in the final two weeks of the season but the picture could become more clear or more jumbled this Friday. Vilonia faces Greenbrier in the final week while Farmington and Morrilton square off in week nine.
Out of the mix: Clarksville, Huntsville
No. 1/2 Seed: Pea Ridge, Shiloh Christian
The Saints and Blackhawks will meet in week 10 with the conference title on the line. Both already own wins over the No. 3 and No. 4 teams in the conference and both play the bottom two teams of the league standings.
No. 3/4 Seed: Prairie Grove, Lincoln
The Wolves and Tigers are tied for third at 3-2 in the league with both losses for each coming to Pea Ridge/Shiloh Christian. Lincoln has a tougher test in week 9 as they face Gentry. Should the Wolves win, the week 10 meeting in Prairie Grove will decide the seeding and who gets a home playoff game.
No. 5 Seed: Lincoln, Gentry
Gentry could get back into the playoff picture with a win at home vs Lincoln on Friday.
Out of the mix: Gravette, Berryville, Green Forest
There are just two conference wins between the three schools, and they were wins against each other.
No. 1/2/3 Seed: Ozark, Elkins, Dardanelle
Both Ozark and Elkins control their own destiny when it comes to a conference title. Ozark is 5-0 and has already beaten Dardanelle. Elkins closes the regular season at Dardanelle in week nine and hosts Ozark in week 10. Ozark will clinch at least a share of the league crown with a win at Waldron on Friday.
No. 4/5 Seed: Elkins, Dardanelle, Mena, Pottsville
Pottsville has the upper hand as they beat the Bearcats in week five, 32-14. Elkins could fall into the No. 4 seed if they lose the final two regular season games. Tie breakers could factor in.
Out of the mix: Waldron, Dover, Subiaco
No. 1/2 Seed: Booneville, Lamar
Both teams are 8-0 and 5-0 respectively but square off in Lamar in week nine. The Bearcats are ranked No. 1 in class 3A (and have been all season) while Lamar is coming off their biggest two wins of the year (vs Greenland, at Mansfield).
No. 3 Seed: Mansfield, Greenland, Charleston
The Red Tigers have the upper hand here as they own the head-to-head tie breaker with Charleston and Greenland.
No. 4/5 Seed: Greenland, Charleston, Cedarville
Greenland owns wins over Charleston and Cedarville plus they face the bottom two teams in the league to close out the regular season. Charleston gets 1-7 West Fork this week before closing the season with Lamar. Cedarville needs help and has to beat Mansfield and Booneville to get in as they lose the tie breaker to both Charleston and Greenland.
Out of the mix: West Fork, Paris
No. 1/2 Seed: Mountainburg, Hector, Magazine
There’s a lot still left to happen in this conference. Mountainburg controls their own destiny and could win the school’s first ever league title with wins over Magazine and Hector to close out the season. Magazine beat Hector in week six, 39-21. Rattlers travel to Mountainburg in week nine while Hector has a non-conference game at top-5 ranked Junction City.
No. 3/4 Seed: Magazine, Lavaca, Hector, Mountainburg
Just like above, there is a lot left to be decided. Lavaca owns a win over Magazine while Mountainburg beat Lavaca four weeks ago. Friday night will help clean up this playoff picture.
No. 5 Seed: Hackett
The Hornets have been the tough luck team in the league this season as they have overtime losses to both Magazine and Hector.
Out of the mix: Western Yell Co., Johnson Co. Westside