Wintry System This Weekend

A wintry system will affect our area late this week into the weekend.

This system is still four days away so there’s a lot that can change between now and then.

Specifics this far our are basically just guesses; however, I wanted to show you where everything stands and what the current thinking is as far as timing and impacts.

This is the system that’s headed our way. It arrives on Friday with a cold rain.

The rain will change to sleet/snow/freezing rain on Saturday. Roads could be slick sometime later Saturday into Sunday morning.

This shows the precipitation type late Saturday at midnight heading into Sunday.

The red line shows the 32º freezing line. North of that line roads will be slick. The line’s exact position is unknown right now.

Right now, rain changing to snow appears to be the dominate precipitation type.

The oranges are sleet, the blues are snow, the pinks are freezing rain. It’s possible we get a little of all three.

What We Know

  • This is a strong system and a cold rain is almost certain late Friday & Saturday
  • There is enough moisture for snow accumulation; it’s more likely than not that this system will actually happen
  • It will be cold enough for roads to freeze Saturday Night
  • Slick spots will be around on Sunday morning
  • Roads improve fast Sunday with above freezing temperatures during the day

What We Don’t Know

  • How much accumulation we’ll see.
  • Where the rain/snow line eventually sets up
  • How much of each type we’ll see 1″ Snow = .10″ Rain = 1/3″ Sleet. Right now: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  • When exactly the changeover occurs and what exactly the type will be. (It depends on the layers of air above us and we have no way of knowing how deep they are because we have no weather balloon launches in our area)
  • The exact track of the low? More south = More snow. Less south = Less snow.

What To Do

  • Get the latest forecast. Even this post will be outdated in 24-hours.
  • Consider changing travel plans if you plan on driving late Saturday/Early Sunday
  • Check with your church to find out about closings/delays

I’ll have another post and look at the system tomorrow. Right now, this system is trending away from an ice storm and more towards a rain that changes briefly to sleet/frz rain and then transitions to all snow but with shallow cold air, it’s possible ice accumulations will occur somewhere in the southern plains.

‘Tis the season!

-Garrett