Winter System Update

Quick update on the upcoming rainy/wintry system…
Tremendous uncertainty continues with no consensus in the data as far as snow totals go.
Rain is likely for everyone; it could be over 1″ and flash flooding is possible.
The trend today has been for snow totals to come down and rain totals to go up.
This is not surprising since the event is still nearly two days away.
Additional changes in the forecast are expected.
If the trend for lower snow totals continues, the National Weather Service is considering a replacement of the Winter Storm Watch with a Winter Weather Advisory. A Winter Storm Watch is only issued when 4″+ is expected. I don’t see that happening as of right now.
A Winter Weather Advisory covers accumulation up to 4″ and indicates travel hazards are expected; this seems like the most likely scenario with the data that’s available today.
This is a look at the current spread so you can see what I’m looking at within the data.
The four different models are represented by A, B, C, & D.
I’ll have additional updates as new data arrives. Expect another post later today with an updated timeline.
Again, this event is still nearly two days away, and snow/ice accumulation totals are far from locked in.
-Garrett