Rain will be likely for much of Saturday. The rain is a result of a strong low pressure system passing to our south.
The highest energy and spin will pass south of our area with Eastern Texas and Louisiana experiencing the highest risk for tornadoes and hail.
The low will force moisture up and over the warm front leading to persistent rainfall spreading from south to north across our area.
This will be a constant rain with higher rainfall totals than the previous few systems.
Rain will move our late Saturday evening into Sunday morning. There’s even a chance some rain could mix with snow across north Oklahoma.
These are forecast rainfall totals. Current data suggests that up to 2″ will be possible on Saturday.
The following data shows the time of arriving from the storm system passing to our south. Model data will change some, but this is a high confidence forecast with consistent data showing a heavy rain event for Saturday.
SATURDAY 7AM: Rain will already be underway in Greenwood and Booneville and spreading north into Fort Smith
SATURDAY NOON: Rain will be falling across the entire area. Pockets of heavier cells will be embedded within the larger area of showers.
SATURDAY 6PM: Showers will continue across the area with a few of them more intermittent by late-evening. Severe thunderstorms, including a higher than usual risk for tornadoes will continue across Texas and Louisiana.
Beyond this system, our next chance for rain will be arriving towards the middle of next week. Severe weather is a good possibility for NW Arkansas and the Fort Smith area by Wednesday evening into Thursday.