ARKANSAS, USA — Thanksgiving is just around the corner, and if you're preparing to host, you're probably thinking about your grocery list.
This year, experts say there's a mix of good and bad news when it comes to costs.
The good news is, economists say you shouldn't see a spike in Thanksgiving prices at the grocery store compared to last year, but even then, many families are still paying significantly more than they did just a few years ago.
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), the average cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people this year is about $58. That's a few dollars down from last year when the average was about $61.
Just because you likely won’t see a price increase from last year’s meal doesn’t mean prices aren’t high, though.
According to AFBF’s data, this year’s prices are still up 19% from what they were in 2019, showing the impact inflation has had on food prices and costs for farmers since the pandemic.
Dr. James Mitchell, Assistant Professor of Agriculture Economics and Agribusiness at the University of Arkansas, said 2022 was the year of "sticker shock" for many shoppers, and prices are slowly starting to come down from that spike.
“There were a lot of things going on in 2022,” Mitchell said. “We were just in a very high food inflation environment during that time. You also have to think about the costs that the producers are facing who raise those animals and those animal products, and they were facing really, really high costs. That was also kind of what many people would probably say was the first ‘normal’ Thanksgiving since the pandemic, so maybe some stronger demand for those Thanksgiving products as well.”
Mitchell said he thinks shoppers will find the main event—the turkey —slightly more affordable than in 2023.
The item he said will likely stand out as being pricey on many people’s grocery lists is eggs.
He said that's because highly pathogenic avian influenza, or bird flu, has hit the industry hard this year, and eggs are seeing a price impact that products like turkey are not.
“Eggs are a perishable product, right?” Mitchell said. “You can't freeze eggs and store them for later, which is important to distinguish from turkey … The turkey industry knows that Thanksgiving is going to happen every year. They know that we're going to be consuming large amounts of frozen or fresh whole turkey in November, so they can kind of store production throughout the year in anticipation for that holiday, whereas on the egg side, those eggs are cartoned and ... consumed.”
Mitchell said another reason prices have stayed a little lower for turkey this year is the availability of substitutes, like ham or other main dish options, while eggs are more difficult to replace.