FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Both Washington and Benton counties, the two most populated counties in Northwest Arkansas are expected to reach a combined population of 1 million residents by the year 2050, a recent projection shows.
While the Northwest Arkansas Regional Planning Commission (NWARPC) began working toward the 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan, they partnered with the Arkansas Economic Development Institute (AEDI) to develop a model that would project the population growth over the next 25 years.
In a memo sent out by NWARPC in March 2024, AEDI, along with demographer Dr. Jessica Omoregie, used a method to project the 2050 population by breaking down the total population into age groups to look at the differences in mortality, fertility, and migration patterns.
Methodology
- Fertility: Age and race-specific fertility rates were developed for each county. An age-specific fertility rate is the number of live births to women from age cohorts 14-19 to 40-44 and then divided by the total number of women in that age cohort. Fertility rates are prepared at five-year intervals.
- Survival: The survival rate is the probability that an age cohort will survive from one period to the next. Survival rates are projected by age race, and sex for each county. They are prepared at five-year intervals.
- Migration: Net migration rates are used to project the number of male and female age cohorts who move in and away from the area. They are prepared at five-year intervals.
These assumptions were taken directly from the March 14, 2024 NWARPC Memo.
The data was taken from the census, which is recorded by the government every 10 years. The last Census was conducted in 2020, however, the NWARPC says the 2010 Census was used as the baseline for these projections.
To help predict fertility rates, the model used CDC WONDER along with the 2010 Census. The Arkansas Department of Health was the source for the birth and death counts for both Benton and Washington counties, NWARPC said.
Overall results
By the year 2050, Benton County is projected to have a population of 603,977 and Washington County is projected to have 420,487 residents, totaling 1,024,464 people.
To view the full report, click here.