ARKANSAS, USA — Election Day is Tuesday, November 5, 2024 in the U.S.
While it's normal for the U.S. presidential race to be the closest-watched election on the ballot, between the assassination attempt against Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump and current president Joe Biden's dropping out of running for a second term — leading to the rise of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrat candidate — many consider this year's an especially consequential race.
As we approach the day when votes will be counted, many are wondering: When will we find out who won the election between Harris and Trump?
The short answer is that it's complicated — and that's perfectly normal.
Dr. John Davis at the University of Arkansas says every close election usually means we won't have a decisive winner on the night of the election. In the Natural State, early ballots can't start being counted until 8:30 a.m. on Election Day, and results won't start being publicized until after the polls close at 7:30 p.m.
Here's how the process in Arkansas works:
- Polls close at 7:30 p.m. on Election Day, Nov. 5
- County election workers begin counting ballots
- County election commissions report preliminary results to the Arkansas Secretary of State
Election workers are counting ballots in voting centers throughout the counties, so timing varies across the state.
Another thing to remember is that absentee ballots cast overseas are given more time to make it to Arkansas to be counted than other ballots. Because of those overseas ballots, it can take several days for official election results to be reported. Provisional ballots also are stuck in limbo until Election Day.
"Of course, as totals come in on election night, we often know the winners of most contests at the local and even state levels," Davis said. "That is unless the contests are particularly close where any outstanding ballots might affect the outcome."
Davis stressed that in recent memory if we went to bed on election night "knowing" who had won an election, it was because media outlets "called" the contest. It will still not be considered official until all ballots — including absentee and provisional — are counted. However, there is a slight chance that we could have an idea of the outcome of the 2024 election.
"Unless we learn that the polls were off and several of the battleground states decisively all go one way or another," Davis said. "In that case, we might see the Associated Press and other media outlets call the contest based on where the outstanding ballots are and the electoral college math of that evening."
It is important to note that each election is different, so there isn't an exact time when the president will be officially declared.
In previous elections, media outlets confidently declared a correct winner on election night. For example, in the 2008 election, Barrack Obama had leads in enough states to secure the needed 270 electoral votes to be elected as president.
"We had a good idea that he won before we went to bed," Davis said.
On the other hand, the 2020 election official results took several days.
"The margins in many toss-up states were so tight, compounded by the unprecedented numbers of absentee votes cast due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it took several days before we knew for sure that Joe Biden had defeated Donald Trump," Davis said.
With polls projecting a nearly neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris, Davis believes this will be an election where we won't immediately know the outcome.
"These things can take time," Davis said. "The lack of a decisive winner on election night reflects a close election and does not, in any way, indicate chicanery regarding vote or vote counts."
Early voting is still underway in Arkansas. The polls will close at 7:30 p.m. on Nov. 5. For more information on the election, visit the 5NEWS Voter Guide.
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