ARKANSAS, USA — The Storm Prediction Center has placed an "elevated risk" for fire danger across Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas for Tuesday, Oct. 15, due to strong winds this afternoon.
Wind gusts Tuesday afternoon are expected to peak around 20 to 30 mph. It's another blast of cool air that will also drop humidity to concerning levels. Dew point values are expected to hover around the upper 20s and low 30s.
Strong winds are just one factor contributing to the elevated risk, as the most significant factor remains the ongoing drought across Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley. September was a historically dry month for Arkansas, as collectively, across Western Arkansas, we had less than 1" of rainfall.
So far in October, we've continued that trend with almost no rainfall so far this month and little to come anytime soon.
Burn bans continue in all of Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley. Most of the state is listed as a "high" risk for wildfire danger, according to the Arkansas Forestry Commission. Burn bans more than likely won't be lifted until there is some significant rainfall.
Why the elevated risk?
It takes multiple factors to have this type of risk from the Storm Prediction Center. The main reason is just how dry it is outside, with parts of Northwest Arkansas listed as being under an "extreme" drought.
The River Valley does not necessarily look terrible on the drought monitor; rather, it's experiencing a "rapidly onset drought." Above-average temperatures and no rain have rapidly increased the drought concern.
When a blast of cool, dry air sweeps through the area, humidity drops significantly. With low humidity and less moisture in the air, fires are easier to start and spread. Strong winds can be the most dangerous factor, as they allow fires to spread at an accelerated rate.
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