ARKANSAS, USA —
The 5NEWS Weather team has declared Monday, Nov. 18, a Weather Impact Alert day due to some strong-to-severe thunderstorm concerns. The greatest concerns are the possibility of strong damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and the potential for a few isolated tornadoes.
Here's a look at current radar across Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley.
There will likely be scattered showers in the area on Monday morning before clearing during the mid-morning hours. During that period, some very strong winds from the south will be present, peaking around 35 to 50 mph. The combination of some clearing and strong southern winds will provide some energy for storms to develop in the early afternoon.
Timing
General timing is anywhere between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m. on Monday afternoon. With some built-up energy during the peak heating hours of the day, the chances of some strong storms will increase. Again, overall chances look to be on the lower end, but not completely zero.
Risk level
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area at a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe weather for Monday afternoon. According to the SPC, the main concerns will be the potential of some damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Both risks are on the lowest end possible but not zero.
The likely scenario for Monday afternoon will be what is called a "squall line." A squall line is a thinner band of thunderstorms that is just ahead of a cold front. What ends up being the main concern is along the "leading edge" or the front of the line where damaging winds can be produced.
Along the leading edge, we will also typically look for signs of rotation or kinks in the squall line. These areas of rotation can sometimes lead to a tornado being formed.
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