ARKANSAS, USA — September was unusually dry to say the least. When we go through dry stretches like what we're dealing with now, it can impact things in many different ways. For example, burn bans are starting to appear again.
Drought conditions can also change the forecast for fall foliage, agriculture, and much more. In September, both in Northwest Arkansas and in the River Valley, less than one inch was recorded. To make things worse, the forecast through mid-October looks even worse.
Burn bans as of October 2nd, 2024: Madison, Johnson, Logan, Carroll counties
September recap
The rainfall totals for September are pretty eye-opening if you look back at the data. Sept. 24 was our wettest day of the month and in Fayetteville we recorded 0.07 inches, which was over half of the rainfall we received for the entire month. In Fort Smith, 0.57 inches was recorded on Sept. 24, which, again, was over half of the month's rainfall. In the end, Fayetteville finished with 0.16 inches this month, and Fort Smith had 0.96 inches.
Since 1893, this September was the 12th driest September in Northwest Arkansas, and the 21st driest September for the River Valley.
Summer 2024 recap
So, why isn't the River Valley or Northwest Arkansas dealing with an extreme level of drought right now? Records indicate that this summer was abnormally wet, and we are now running low on the surplus.
Outside of June 2024, this summer's rain totals were significantly higher than the normal average of rainfall in the month. That's why we didn't have any burn bans this summer, and we are now just starting to see drought concerns rise across Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley.
Northwest Arkansas rain totals
River Valley rain totals
Current drought conditions
The current drought monitor is showing that concerns are rising in Northwest Arkansas, more than in the River Valley. Since Jan. 1, 2024, 39.24 inches of rainfall has been collected in the River Valley. This level put the River Valley, 3.65 inch of rainfall in the surplus. When you compare that to the current drought monitor, you'll see that drought concerns remain low.
Since Jan. 1, 2024, only 31.05 inches of rainfall was collected in Northwest Arkansas. That level puts Northwest Arkansas in a defect of -4.68 inches of normal rainfall for the year. This defect can be visualized on the drought monitor as parts of the state are showing more concern.
What's to come in October
Data from the Climate Prediction Center shows that the future isn't very bright. This forecast shows what the precipitation outlook through mid-October. It shows that Northwest Arkansas and the River Valley are not only expected to be below average for the next 6 to 10 days, but well below average through the next 8 to 14 days.
This dry stretch is also paired with above-average temperatures for this time of year. Now, this forecast isn't to say that their won't be any rain, but it does say the totals will be below average.
Oct. 6 to Oct. 10
Oct. 8 to Oct. 14
